I just wanted to touch on the drama surrounding José Reyes, shortstop for the New York Mets, and his future contract. For those of you who don't know, Reyes is in the last year of his contract, known in sports as "your contract year." And everyone is weighing in on what kind of contract he should receive during the off-season. A contract year is important in that it can set you up for a rich, long-term deal. Reyes is having a career year thus far; at the time this was written he was leading the National League in batting average (.349) as well as other offensive statistical categories and was second in stolen bases (30). But I want to address the leading theme regarding Reyes’ future contract.
I’ve been listening to sports radio here in New York City, and a theme has arisen when it comes to Reyes, his pending free-agency and what kind of contract he should get. And it is that Reyes should not receive a long-term contract similar to what Carl Crawford got from the Boston Red Sox (7yrs/$142M). Even Mets owner Fred Wilpon stated as much in an article in the New Yorker magazine. The main reason given has been that Reyes is a speed player and he will lose his speed, hence leaving the team that signs him with an ineffective and high-priced player. They also note his history of leg injuries and call into question his baseball I.Q.
On its face the argument looks valid. But somehow it didn’t ring true for me.
Reyes has been known to make bone-headed plays occasionally and he has lost major parts of three seasons due to leg injuries, mostly his hamstrings. And it’s safe to say that as we age we start to lose speed. So I looked at each gripe and came to some interesting conclusions, not necessarily about Reyes, but of similar players historically.
The complaint against a long-term contract that has been voiced the most often and LOUDEST on sports radio regards Reyes’ speed and his ineffectiveness as a player when he eventually loses that speed. It’s almost as if speed is fleeting. Jose Reyes is 28 years old. A contract for seven years would run through his prime years, taking him up to 35 years old. Not exactly ancient. Players like Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter of the Yankees also had contracts that ended, or in the case of Rodriguez would have ended, at a similar age. So I looked into this theory that has been put forth regarding speed-players. I looked at former players who were adept at stealing bases, scoring runs and hitting doubles and triples, as these are usually the categories that speed-players excel at in baseball. I won't get into the specific numbers for each player for every year, but I did find some interesting results. I looked at guys like Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman, Kenny Lofton, Joe Morgan, Lou Brock, Ty Cobb, Tim Raines, Otis Nixon, among others, and what I found interesting was the number of years these guys played. All, with the exception of Vince Coleman who played 13 seasons, played at least 15 years in the Major Leagues, with many playing 20 or more seasons. I don’t think teams would keep a guy around for 20 years if he wasn’t somewhat effective. Well, maybe these guys were able to reinvent themselves as players once they lost their speed, you say. Can Reyes do the same? I can’t answer whether he can reinvent himself or not, but it doesn’t matter. We’re talking about a seven year contract that would take him into his 16th season in the majors. And what I found among these speed players is that almost all of them remained effective, meaning they put up above-average numbers, through their 15th year. What this means is that they didn’t lose their speed as early or quickly as everyone is suggesting. As Reyes is in the middle of his ninth year it would seem to me that he has a lot of effective, above-average baseball left in him without him having to reinvent himself.
It’s interesting that the argument is made that Reyes should not get “Carl Crawford money,” yet as players Reyes and Crawford have put up similar numbers throughout their careers, including batting average (.291 Reyes vs. .294 Crawford). If anything, the numbers indicate that Reyes should receive a similar contract to Crawford’s. You can even make an argument that Reyes is the more exciting player, thus putting more fans in the stands and bringing in more revenue for the owner. Reyes is also two years younger than Crawford.
Reyes’ history of leg injuries is well-chronicled. His first two years in the major leagues were cut short by hamstring issues. He seemed to have resolved those issues over the next four years he was injury-free and put up big numbers, becoming an All-Star and a bona fide star in the major leagues. He then missed most of another year and the beginning of the 2010 season with injuries. Now that’s he’s fully healthy he’s again putting up league-leading numbers and so far has been injury-free. Out of all the complaints against him, this is probably the most legit and the one teams should be the most worried about. Teams should also take into consideration the Mets’ medical staff’s penchant for misdiagnosing injuries. For some weird reason, Mets players almost never make a speedy recovery or meet the initial timetable for their return from the disabled list. With better medical assistance maybe Reyes doesn’t lose as much time to injury as he has, but more importantly maybe he doesn’t get injured to begin with. And regarding Reyes’ baseball I.Q.? It’s high enough that although he will have momentary lapses, it isn’t anything to be overly concerned about.
Having delved deeper into the issue we can see that the prevailing opinion is incorrect. All the numbers actually point to José Reyes having another six to seven years of above-average baseball. The lesson? Just because the sport’s radio talkies say it doesn’t make it so. And to baseball general managers I say, “Get the checkbooks ready.”
